Proud to be an American

January 16, 2012

I say this because I am proud of my country. I also say this because the good ole greenback is kicking tail! The USD has just hit a 16 month high against the Euro. This is due to the continuing ‘uncertainly’ over the state of European sovereign debt. This has been written about at length and I won’t go into it here.

The USD has been the world’s reserve currency for over 50 years. The Greenback is the most commonly used currency in all kinds of business deals, legal and otherwise. Foreign governments hold millions of USD due to its ease of use and nearly universal acceptance.

That being said in times of financial uncertainty, or outright currency collapse most investors go to what is safe, and what they know. So the USD would get even stronger due to increased demand.

If/When the Greeks abandon or are forced out of the Euro demand for the USD will skyrocket, I think we are already seeing the beginning of this trend. How would one profit from this? Well you could buy FX options on the USD, but there is no way I am willing to accept that kind of risk. The other is of course holding your assets in cash, and hold them in USD. Luckily as a citizen of the United States I get paid in dollars and have one or two stocked away I the bank.

Dolla Dolla bills ya'll

 


Europe has to run their finances like the rest of us

January 8, 2012

In a nutshell that is what is happening. The Greeks, along with the rest of the 22 Euro zone countries decided in 1999 to bind themselves to a common currency. This had both positive and negative aspects to it.

The good was quickly seen by the EU, the grand experiment seemed to be working.  It encouraged tourism, made the whole continent more efficient and all but eliminated currency risk.

Currency Risk is basically this: a guy owes you cash in German Deutschemarks, but you have to pay all your bills in French Lira. Which is fine, you just exchange the Deutschemarks into Lira, and then pay your French debts. The problem develops when in a short period of time the D’marks you are going to receive rapidly fall against the Lira that you yourself owe. This makes business risky, and hedging against currency risk also has a cost.

The Euro eliminated this problem (and many others) and all was right for about 10 years.  The EU had a strong economy, sure they ran deficits but the rate of economic growth and inflation kept it all manageable.

Here is the bad, when the Euro was adopted the participating countries gave up control of their monetary policy.  This is a countries ability to say how much new debt they are allowed to issue.

In the past 5 years we in the United States have issued A LOT of debt to pay for all kinds of things. Most of this is due to a shortfall in tax receipts.  The Europeans cannot do this. They are limited on how much debt they can issue to pay for things. When the Euro treaty was signed all the countries agreed to set standards and limits of how much of a deficit a single country could run.

 

The problem is their tax receipts are drying up too, and like the rest of us. The PIIGS (Portagual, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain) are all pretty much broke. They have huge socialist societies and their government pays for a lot of things. In the past, when all these countries had their own currencies they would just issue more debt and cover the costs. Now that option is no longer open to them. They cannot borrow anymore money; they have to live like the rest of us.

Greece has already written down some of its debt, and has been bailed out several times by the ECB and IMF.  The PIIGS are really painted into a corner, they can’t borrow any more money, and they can’t balance their budgets. The rest of the EU can bail them out, but it really seams it will just be throwing good money after bad.

You as a person can just declare bankruptcy and start afresh, it hurts for a little while but often it is the best course of action. Countries cannot really do this. They can default on their debt, but the results are rather catastrophic, and the consequences are much worse than having a poor credit score for a few years.

 

Moral of the story: I have no idea how to fix this, ECB has to let the Greeks issue more debt, or leave the Euro zone entirely. Neither of these options are going to be good for anyone.


What I Hate Owing People Money

January 8, 2012

I really do. I hate owing just about any money in any amount to any person. I hate putting more than $1000 a month on my credit card. I used to take advantage of the 0% offers from the big box stores on big purchases like TV’s and appliances. No longer, because I thought it was a good idea to borrow money for my new car.

 

And by new car of course I mean “new to me.” Because anyone who knows me knows I am a major cheap-ass, and have a really hard time spending money on an asset that will be worth 10% less in six months.  I will dump money into my house, but cars not so much.

So back to financing my car. I wanted something a little bigger to haul stuff around for the house, and four wheel drive seemed like it would be worth having. So I purchased a 2005 trailblazer. It was a fine car; it met most of my needs. The problem was it cost $12,000 and I financed about half of it over 48 months. Payments were around $170 a month which is completely reasonable.

Anyone who is reading this is thinking “Hey $170 a month for a car is nothing!” and you would be right. However I am slightly crazy and hate owing people money. The only thing that is worse then owing someone money is not knowing how much you owe them!

The bank that the dealer did my loan with was some fly by night organization located in a one stoplight town. This bank was so advanced they did not have online account access, and their website only contained their contact information. This bank also did not bother sending out statements. The only thing they did send out was a coupon book. A coupon book? What year is it 1976?! So needless to say this bank was useless and I blindly threw money at the loan for about a year.

After that the loan stressed me out enough that I decided to pay the loan off, they sent me a statement after I requested it. I think it was from one of those printers we had in grade school where you have to tear the holes off both sides.  I finally figured out how much I owed and paid the dang thing off.

So moral of the story for me is: Borrowing money to buy things you cannot currently afford is not worth the irritation that I feel from owing money on that particular item.


AT&T Customer service FAIL

July 28, 2011

So six months ago I switched from TWC to AT&T. The service was ok, and the cost was about the same. ATT allowed you to DVR 4 shows at the same time, something TWC had not been able to do. They gave me the standard teaser 6 month rate. So I figured in six months I would call and threaten to cancel, or cancel for real and get a better rate.

 

The tiny step I forgot to think about was that you actually usually need to talk to a person to accomplish that goal.  Below is the email I was able to leave with AT&T after much gnashing of teeth.

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Terrible customer service:

 

I called two days in a row, dealt with that terrible automated voice, and then was given the privilege to wait on hold for 30 mins, even though the voice said the ‘heavy call volume’ would only take 10 mins. Is it a plan to keep people from canceling their service if they can’t even reach a CSR? Needless to say I spent most of the time searching your website for someone I could email, which I could not find. How do you not have an email address listed in boldface type on your main page? Finally the single thing that worked well was your chat function. I was able to talk with someone who gave me this webpage, not an actual email address. *(yeah still no email address, just a webpage to leave feedback, which was of course NOT on ATT.com)*  I also was given your “suggestion box’ which was terrible as well, it was limited to 140 characters really? Are you receiving these emails though a phone modem? Needless to say your entire customer service apparatus needs significant upgrading. How can you expect to help your customers if they cant even get a hold of you? I expect much better from a serious company like AT&T.

**********************************************

And worst of all, I still did not get my bill taken care of! So far TWC was much more attentive to its customers. More to come!


									

My Solution To High Gas Prices

April 29, 2011

          Unless you have been living under a rock you realize that your weekly visit to the local gas station is really hurting you in the wallet.  Gas where I live just hit $4.15 a gallon, and since I fill up the tank about once a week for fifty two weeks would come out to almost $4,000 a year!             

               

           Now we can debate about the reason for high gas prices, it could be the super secret screw American campaign masterminded by George Bush and Exxon Mobile. Or it could be those speculators on Wall Street. That everyone seems to blame, but no one has actually been able to explain how they are actually affecting the price of gas. Or it could be the 2 billion people in China and India that are becoming middle class and can afford their first car that takes gasoline. This is just a simple lesson in economics about supply and demand, but I digress…

 

Here is my solution to the high gas prices.

 

          That’s right the Yamaha Vino 125, I think it gets somewhere between 80 and 100 MPG. It costs all of $1500 bucks, and if I put 3,000 miles on it, it will have paid for itself.  Call me a hippie, a pretentions snob, or a hipster I don’t really care. I will be the one buying my gas 1.2 gallons at a time. How many gallons fit in your tank?


Property Taxes Update

October 21, 2010

So recently I contested the assessed property value of my home. The fact of the matter was it was being taxed at a much higher rate than what I paid for it. The country agreed to lower my property taxes, which will lower my monthly house payment. This by itself is pretty awesome, but it gets better.

Not only did they lower my taxes, they refunded the portion of taxes that I had already paid. So now according to the county I have overpaid for property taxes. I knew of this, and submitted paperwork for it. I did this about a month ago then promptly forgot about Hey it’s the local government; they work about as fast as a smart car merging on the interstate, so I was not expecting much.

Long story short I got a big check today from the country auditor today, that guy is totally getting my vote.

Checks: Love getting them, hate to write them.


Expenses and the 80/20 Rule

October 5, 2010

The Internet is full of ways to save money and cut costs. I cannot tell you how many articles I have read telling you to cut out Starbucks and you can save enough for retirement, or turn your thermostat down and night to save on heating costs. Trying cost cutting ideas like that will work, but cutting back on small things can only get you so far. If you want to significantly cut your costs, you need to go after your biggest expenses. For most people (and me) that is Housing, Cars, Travel, and Food.  These big expenses are what as known as the ‘long tail’

The 80/20 rule also known as a Pareto analysis basically says that by doing 20% of the tasks will get you 80% of the results.  This an be applied to almost anything:

20% of the people hold 80% of the wealth

20% of your customers provide 80% of your sales

And for this blog post 80% of your costs come from 20% of your expenses.

Approximately 50% of my costs are housing related. Between mortgage, taxes, home improvement and insurance it gets pretty pricey. You can see my 80/20 analysis of expenses below.

I choose to try to reduce my mortgage and my property taxes. By taking advantage of record low mortgage rates I was able to lock in a rate in the low 4’s, and contesting my local property taxes I was able to cut my monthly housing payment by a significant amount. These relatively easy steps are going to make a real difference to my bottom line.

All without giving up Starbucks.


When You Need Them More They Need You

July 12, 2010

And it’s never good.

I really don’t like being in such a position, and I try to avoid them.  No matter if your situation is in a relationship, a job where you’re overpaid and under qualified, or simply as a consumer it is never a good thing. You give the other party all the power, and often times things are just hunky dory either the other party does not know they have the upper hand on your, or they do know it and are ok with the status-quo.

This is the situation that I found myself in today.

I needed a new iphone, mine went thru the wash, and it needed to be replaced. The only place I could do it sort of buying a brand new one at $500 was the aptly named Apple Genius Bar.  So I went to the Apple store, well first I had to schedule an appointment, an appointment! This is not a visit to my doctor, or a job interview. I want to give Apple a large portion of money, and they want me to schedule a time do it! Their first problem was that they have one single Apple store in a metro area of well over a million people, but I will set that aside.  The store was packed, and to their credit it went pretty fast. They smiled as they send me out the door with my ‘new’ $200 iphone.  Regardless I still don’t think I like the idea of a business dictating to me when I am allowed to come in and give them my money.

I just worry what happens when Apple realizes that they have the complete upper hand with me, and can do just about whatever they want to me.

Apple is a company that has been to the brink of disaster and come back several times. They have fired their current CEO in the 90’s just to bring him back 5 years or so later. To me everything apple does is centered in a tactical objective of protecting their competitive advantage.

Your Apple product can only sync with other apple software and run Apple applications. Your Apple can only be worked on by Apple Technicians, and your Apple MP3s will only work on Apple Devices.  The only recourse dissatisfied customers have with a business is to give their business to someone else, but with Apple products is that even possible without replacing your entire media collection, computers, and music players? There has been talk that Apple is pushing out Flash and Adobe players because they wont play ball with apple, and as a result everyone’s iphones no longer will run videos or documents in those formats.

Now this is all well and good if you love apple, and are happy with the way things are. It just worries me that apple is sending us all down a path of dependence that there is not getting off of.  I love my phone, it’s made by Apple, but I don’t think I can give it up. I just hope Apple does not raise its prices simply because it can.


Wasting Money

May 4, 2010

I say this because I have been car shopping. I say this because cars are nothing but a depreciating asset at best, or a terrible liability at worst.  I say this because I liken spending money on a car to the feds propping up Fannie Mae, it’s just a waste!

I have been looking at bigger cars. I have a small car and it drives me nuts. Two doors are incontinent and pretty bad at hauling around people, groceries, and definitely no good for moving 2×4’s.  I have been looking at 4 door sedans and the medium sized SUV’s. I like the American models, not because they claim to be built in the USA (they often are not) but because the “imports” (built in the south without union help) cost alot more due to their slower depreciation.

I think I am going to finance about half of it. In doing the math my total finance charges would be around $200 so that is well worth being allowed to hang onto my cash in case I need it at some point in the future.  That way I will still maintain a large amount of liquidity for my emergency fund.

So I will keep you posted.

Moral of the story: If cars were not so cool, I would drive a clunker forever.


Monetizing The Debt

April 20, 2010

            We have lots of debt, last I checked, it was approaching 13 Trillion, which is usually more than I can find in my couch cushions. The national debt is approaching 70% of GDP. That is essentially saying if your family brings in $100,000 a year, that you have $70,000 in debt. Not an enviable place to be in. This represents all time high in percentages as well; we have not seen levels like this since we were crushing the Nazi’s and the Japanese in 1945.

            Usually in the past we pay off our debt by simply printing extra money and just use to pay the debt down. I assume that is exactly what whoever is in Washington over the next 10 years will try to do (Democrats and Republicans have both proved unable to fix this problem). Except that this time I am not sure that it will work. Those fine folks in Washington I recently mentioned also promised extensive benefits to many, many, MANY of the people who vote for them. They don’t just promise them an amount; they promise them an amount that is indexed to inflation.

            What that means if Joe Retiree got $100 a month in social security in 1980, he would get $100 * (1 + inflation) today. This is not good; this ensures that no matter what inflation does Joe Retiree will still get his share. The head of the Federal Reserve Mr. Bernanke recently stated this fact publicly, monetizing the debt will do nothing to reduce it and just destroy the savings of the middle class.

“Given the structure of our debt, [inflation] wouldn’t even help reduce the debt … given that so many of our obligations are indexed.”

-B. Bernanke

So what’s next, Taxes? Reduced benefits? Cut back on social security and Medicare? Oh the horror? AARP would (slowly) march on Washington! I think that these situations are about as likely to happen as me winning the lottery without buying a ticket.

Moral of the story: be prepared for inflation with assets such as precious metals, real estate, or other hard assets.


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